UNC Greensboro

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	65.0
Current RPI:	65
Expected SOS:	206
Current SOS:	206
Current Record:	24-7
Expected Record:	24-7
Current Conf Record:	18-3
Expected Conf Record:	18-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-2
Current OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC RPI:	147
Expected OOC SOS:	230

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-7	65.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Greensboro.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Virginia (1.0)	ACC	A	60-48	L	0%
11-20	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	79-66	W	100%
11-21	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	71-40	W	100%
11-24	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	A	81-75	L	0%
11-28	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	A	74-72	L	0%
12-2	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	75-76	W	100%
12-7	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	75-44	W	100%
12-13	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	71-58	W	100%
12-16	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	A	76-81	W	100%
12-19	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	60-67	L	0%
12-30	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	71-67	W	100%
1-6	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	61-63	W	100%
1-11	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	68-58	L	0%
1-13	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	A	55-66	W	100%
1-18	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	H	72-58	W	100%
1-20	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	70-66	W	100%
1-24	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	71-61	W	100%
1-27	Samford (296.0)	SC	A	82-98	W	100%
1-29	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	87-85	L	0%
2-1	VMI (313.0)	SC	H	73-51	W	100%
2-7	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	67-80	W	100%
2-10	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	65-48	W	100%
2-12	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	H	74-56	W	100%
2-15	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	66-82	W	100%
2-17	Mercer (174.0)	SC	A	77-74	L	0%
2-20	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	66-76	W	100%
2-23	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	72-51	W	100%
2-25	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	88-75	W	100%
3-3	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	N	72-58	W	100%
3-4	Wofford (129.0)	SC	N	56-55	W	100%
3-5	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	N	62-47	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Greensboro's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UNC Greensboro's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UNC Greensboro.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UNC Greensboro	SC	26.63	26.63	81.48	81.48	16.77	16.77
East Tennessee St.	SC	5.92	5.92	75.86	75.86	3.06	3.06
Wofford	SC	5.88	5.88	66.67	66.67	1.96	1.96
The Citadel	SC	5.85	5.85	30.77	30.77	-2.25	-2.25
Furman	SC	4.46	4.46	72.41	72.41	2.00	2.00
VMI	SC	4.40	4.40	26.92	26.92	-2.03	-2.03
Chattanooga	SC	4.38	4.38	24.14	24.14	-2.26	-2.26
Mercer	SC	4.35	4.35	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
Western Carolina	SC	4.32	4.32	39.29	39.29	-0.93	-0.93
Samford	SC	4.30	4.30	28.57	28.57	-1.84	-1.84
UNC Asheville	BSth	1.99	1.99	60.00	60.00	0.40	0.40
Liberty	BSth	1.88	1.88	56.67	56.67	0.25	0.25
Longwood	BSth	1.86	1.86	13.79	13.79	-1.34	-1.34
Presbyterian	BSth	1.85	1.85	25.00	25.00	-0.93	-0.93
Elon	CAA	1.80	1.80	41.38	41.38	-0.31	-0.31
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.77	1.77	67.74	67.74	0.63	0.63
Delaware	CAA	1.77	1.77	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
UNC Wilmington	CAA	1.77	1.77	31.03	31.03	-0.67	-0.67
Wake Forest	ACC	1.71	1.71	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
Virginia	ACC	1.66	1.66	93.75	93.75	1.46	1.46
High Point	BSth	0.46	0.46	40.74	40.74	-0.08	-0.08
Radford	BSth	0.35	0.35	62.50	62.50	0.09	0.09
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.35	0.35	42.86	42.86	-0.05	-0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.35	0.35	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.27	0.27	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.26	0.26	68.75	68.75	0.10	0.10
North Carolina	ACC	0.26	0.26	71.43	71.43	0.11	0.11
Clemson	ACC	0.26	0.26	71.88	71.88	0.11	0.11
James Madison	CAA	0.24	0.24	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
College of Charleston	CAA	0.21	0.21	77.42	77.42	0.12	0.12
Drexel	CAA	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.21	0.21	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.19	0.19	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.18	0.18	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
Duke	ACC	0.18	0.18	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Towson	CAA	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Notre Dame	ACC	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Memphis	Amer	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.11	0.11	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
UMBC	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00